The exit polls of the 2014 and 2019 general elections proved to be correct. Both times the exit polls predicted BJP’s victory and the results were also the same. In 2014, BJP won 282 seats and in 2019, it won 303 seats.
Voting is being held across the country on Saturday under the seventh and last phase of the Lok Sabha elections 2024. After this, the results of the elections will be announced on June 4.
But before the election results, the results of the Exit Poll will start coming from Saturday evening itself. In such a situation, it is important to know what is an exit poll? How is it conducted? And how did it start?
What is an exit poll?
In any election, when the voter comes out of the polling booth after voting, he is asked which party or candidate he has voted for. Many major agencies of the country are involved in this survey, which conduct exit polls in different ways. These agencies deploy their people outside the polling booths on the day of voting, as soon as the voters come out after voting. They are asked many types of questions, such as – which party did they vote for. Who is their favorite candidate for the post of Prime Minister, etc.
Exit polls are controlled under section 126A of the Representation of the People Act 1951. At the same time, the Election Commission also issues proper guidelines regarding exit polls, which tells what should be the method of exit polls.
How did exit polls start?
Like India, exit polls are conducted before elections in many countries around the world. These polls have been conducted on many continents from America to Asia and Africa. But the first exit poll was conducted in America in 1936. At that time George Gallup and Claude Robinson conducted a survey in New York. Voters coming out of polling booths were asked which candidate they voted for for the post of President.
In this exit poll, Franklin D Roosevelt was predicted to win, which proved true in the election results. After this, the trend of exit polls spread rapidly all over the world. After this, the first exit polls were conducted in Britain in 1937 and in France in 1938.
When was the first exit poll conducted in India?
In India, the first exit poll was conducted in the second general election in 1957. The Indian Institute of Public Opinion conducted this poll. But it was not called an exit poll completely. After this, in 1980, Dr. Prannoy Roy conducted the first exit poll.
The 1996 Lok Sabha election was very important in terms of exit polls. At that time, exit polls were shown on Doordarshan. This was the first time when the results of exit polls were shown on TV. This survey was conducted by the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).
