Immigration has been a central issue in this year’s British general election campaign, with all major parties pledging to reduce net migration from the record levels seen over the past two years.
Expected Political Shift
As the country prepares to vote on July 4th, it looks increasingly likely that Rishi Sunak will no longer be Prime Minister. The Conservative Party is projected to suffer significant losses, with the Labour Party expected to win an outright majority. Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, is anticipated to become the next Prime Minister.
Implications for Immigration Policy
Tone of Debate: The tone of the immigration debate in the UK is likely to shift. Under the Conservative Party, the language around immigration grew increasingly hostile, making the debate over immigration toxic.
Conservative Policy: To bolster its core support base among right-wing voters, the Conservative Party often resorted to rhetoric perceived as anti-immigration. Many potential migrants who considered the UK as an option were deterred by this atmosphere and chose to relocate to more welcoming countries like the USA or Canada.
Labour Policy: While some visa routes have faced restrictions, the UK still offers many opportunities for those with the right skills. The nation has always welcomed migrants who are willing to work and contribute.
Labour’s Approach
Although the Labour Party also aims to lower net migration by reforming immigration policy, if it wins the election, the toxicity surrounding the migration debate is likely to diminish. The Labour Party’s centre-left politics suggest that any immigration restrictions will be more pragmatic compared to some of the Conservative proposals.
Proposed Policies: Labour’s proposed immigration policy, as outlined in its election manifesto, aims to implement “a fair and properly managed immigration system” and reduce UK businesses’ dependency on overseas workers to fill skills shortages. To achieve this, a Labour government plans to increase incentives for businesses to train local workers.
Potential Measures: Potential measures may include a cap on numbers or further refinement of the Immigration Salary List (ISL), which replaced the Shortage Occupation List earlier this year.
Strengthening MAC: Labour also pledges to strengthen the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), the independent body advising the government on immigration policy. MAC recently recommended keeping the Graduate visa route, which allows employers to hire overseas graduates without meeting salary thresholds, so it is likely this will remain.
Cracking Down on Abuses: Other manifesto pledges include cracking down on employers and recruitment agencies that abuse the immigration system, with a vow to ban those found flouting the rules from hiring workers from abroad.
Linking Immigration and Skills Policy
A key aspect of Labour’s proposed overhaul of legal immigration is linking immigration and skills policy. The party aims to train domestic workers to fill roles currently occupied by migrant workers, ending what it calls the “long-term reliance on overseas workers” in some sectors. This will be achieved through training initiatives and domestic recruitment, specifically in the Health and Social Care and construction sectors.
Impact on Indian Workers: However, this is less impactful for Indian workers for two reasons. Firstly, the assumption that there is a pool of British workers ready to be trained and fill these roles is questionable, given the historically high vacancy rates in these sectors. Secondly, even if such workers exist, training them will take time. For instance, training as a nurse takes a minimum of three years, and training as an electrician takes at least two years. In the meantime, Indian workers can continue to fill these roles.
Addressing Skills Shortages
According to a recent report from education think tank Edge Foundation, the number of skills shortage vacancies in the UK doubled between 2017 and 2022 to 531,200. There is no reason to assume this figure has not risen since. This means over half a million workers need to be found and trained.
Skills shortage vacancies are most prevalent in Health and Social Work, Business Services, and Wholesale and Retail, with Construction, Information and Communications, and Manufacturing sectors also exhibiting high proportions of skills shortage vacancies.
Training Needs: All these sectors require workers with the right skills now. With the exception of wholesale and retail, they all require substantial training, much of which takes several years (retail has effectively been priced out of the overseas worker market due to the rise in the salary threshold for Skilled Worker visas).
